Evaluation of Climate Suitability for Maize Production in Poland under Climate Change

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorKról-Badziak, Aleksandra
dc.contributor.authorKozyra, Jerzy
dc.contributor.authorRozakis, Stelios
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-24T08:16:24Z
dc.date.available2024-09-24T08:16:24Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractClimatic conditions are the main factor influencing the suitability of agricultural land for crop production. Therefore, the evaluation of climate change impact on crop suitability using the best possible methods and data is needed for successful agricultural climate change adaptation. This study presents the application of a multi-criteria evaluation approach to assess climate suitability for maize production in Poland, for a baseline period (BL, 1981–2010) and two future periods 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) under two RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analyses incorporated expert knowledge using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) into the evaluation of criteria weights. The results showed that maturity and frost stress were the most limiting factors in assessing the climatic suitability of maize cultivation in Poland, with 30% and 11% of Poland classified as marginally suitable or not suitable for maize cultivation, respectively. In the future climate, the area limited by maturity and frost stress factors is projected to decrease, while the area of water stress and heat stress is projected to increase. For 2050 climate projections, water stress limitation areas occupy 7% and 8% of Poland for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while for 2080 projections, the same areas occupy 12% and 32% of the country, respectively. By 2080, heat stress will become a limiting factor for maize cultivation; according to our analysis, 3% of the Polish area under RCP8.5 will be marginally suitable for maize cultivation because of heat stress. The overall analyses showed that most of Poland in the BL climate is in the high suitability class (62%) and 38% is moderately suitable for maize cultivation. This situation will improves until 2050, but will worsen in the 2080s under the RCP8.5 scenario. Under RCP8.5, by the end of the century (2080s), the highly suitable area will decrease to 47% and the moderately suitable area will increase to 53%.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was funded by Interreg Central Europe and the European Union in the framework of the project Clim4Cast (Central European Alliance for Increasing Climate Change Resilience to Combined Consequences of Drought, Heatwave, and Fire Weather through Regionally-Tuned Forecasting) grant number CE0100059
dc.identifier.citationKról-Badziak, A.; Kozyra, J.; Rozakis, S. Evaluation of Climate Suitability for Maize Production in Poland under Climate Change. Sustainability 2024, 16, 6896. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16166896
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/su16166896
dc.identifier.issn2071-1050
dc.identifier.urihttps://bc.iung.pl/handle/123456789/1849
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.subjectmulti-criteria
dc.subjectanalytic hierarchy process
dc.subjectEURO-CORDEX
dc.subjectclimate risk
dc.titleEvaluation of Climate Suitability for Maize Production in Poland under Climate Change
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
sustainability-16-06896.pdf
Size:
6.27 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
Collections
Artykuły